Thursday, May 17th, 2012
4 Predictions from inside the industry on what changes are coming.
For the first time in 50 years, Nielsen will be telling advertisers the truth they may or may not want to hear.
Audience ratings do not equal commercial ratings.
The spark behind demand for a commercial ratings system vs. a content ratings system started because of one four letter word: TiVo.
When TiVo first came out, it enabled "time shifting" of TV viewing, but most importantly, it enabled consumers to do what they’ve been wanting to do all along: skip TV commercials.
Although the phenomenon of ignoring TV commercials is not new, 63% of TV viewers have been channel zapping before TiVo was ever invented…but nobody wanted to talk about that secret.
Now it’s out of the TV closet, and with the robust reporting of the Internet today on views, click-throughs, roll-overs, and ultimately conversion to purchase or to desired action–TV is looking like the media bought with the blind leading the blind.
But now, come May 31, Nielsen’s Commercial Ratings won’t be quite as robust as Internet reporting, but at least better truth will be told (stay tuned for Arbitron’s RF people meter coming in several years to discover the full truth).
Four Predictions:
1. Commercial ratings for TV shows in Nielsen’s Top 20 ratings list will be 5-10% lower than ratings for the show content itself.
2. Commercial ratings for TV shows outside the Nielsen Top 20 list will be 25%-40% lower than ratings for show content
3. Advertisers will demand lower CPM’s for lower commercial ratings (obvious)
4. Advertisers will invest in content once again harking back to the days of the Colgate Comedy Hour, where TV content will be branded and produced by the likes of independent TV Studio Buzznation, or brands themselves will become Producers (Procter & Gamble still owns and produces Guiding Light and As the World Turns).
